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article------>{"id":141,"cid":22,"sub_cid":"","title":"继续上课，记一下笔记","short_title":"","tag_id":"","attr":"","seo_title":"","seo_keywords":"","seo_description":"","source":"","author":"","description":"","img":"","content":"<p>广博跟跨境通是同一个庄，资金是5亿。广博拉涨停以后，稳定后，会突然把跨境通拉涨停<br>跨境通主要的问题在于重组风险，现在法院那边年底不太可能出结果，所以会拖到年后。</p>\n<p>每月15号，要按规定公布一下案情情况，所以在15号会对股价有所影响，有两次变盘都是在15号进行的，消息公布以后，压股价，然后在14点20分左右暴拉股价<br><br>1点跨境通就开始拉了？？！！ 估计是散户行为，狼来的听多了，就开始找规律了，不动<br><br>东方中科拉起来了（短时涨幅4%），估计 传智会有所表现 </p>\n<p>已经带动了鸿蒙的对应板块上升</p>\n<p>好了，传智教育出现点火了 不突破16.05，不算趋势确认</p>\n<p>亚华电子，冲到17.8% 所以开始带动板块</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p>还有4分钟，跨境通应当会开始拉了。</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p> </p>\n<p>信雅达，还是在走拉高，然后继续做券的手法。短期应当缺少对应的人气</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p><br>1 打板前准备（学完）<br>2 打板的原理 (学完）<br>3 打板生态系统（今天学，学完了）</p>\n<p>4 情绪周期分析（现在学，学完了）</p>\n<p>5 情绪周期案例分析（继续学，学完了）</p>\n<p>6 主线与支线的分析（继续学，学完了）</p>\n<p>7 板块炒作周棋（继续学）</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p> </p>\n<p> </p>\n<ul>\n<li>低吸潜伏(要有很强的预判能力）</li>\n<li>半路点火</li>\n<li>打板</li>\n<li>接力</li>\n<li>出货</li>\n</ul>\n<p> 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</li>\n<li>连板数量增加至10个以上</li>\n<li>容错率低，成功率一般</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>上升阶段\n<ul>\n<li>空间高度突破5B限制，或突破近几周期高度限制</li>\n<li>连板数量约15-40个</li>\n<li>连板的晋级率高</li>\n<li>容错率高，溢价率高\n<ul>\n<li>操作：接力+龙头战法</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>高潮\n<ul>\n<li>涨停数量创近期新高</li>\n<li>连板数量创近期新高</li>\n<li>主流板块拍毕业照\n<ul>\n<li>低切首板+抱团妖股</li>\n<li>除非大牛市，一般不会出现三次高潮</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>分岐\n<ul>\n<li>周期龙头断板</li>\n<li>后排出现负反馈</li>\n<li>开始出现少数核按钮\n<ul>\n<li>低切+首板+妖股</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>退潮\n<ul>\n<li>龙头大跌甚至出现核按钮</li>\n<li>后排频繁出现核按钮</li>\n<li>空间高度极速压缩</li>\n<li>跌停板数量明显增多\n<ul>\n<li>空仓 妖股</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<ul>\n<li>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 117.563px;\" border=\"1\"><colgroup><col style=\"width: 24.9758%;\"><col style=\"width: 24.9758%;\"><col style=\"width: 24.9758%;\"><col style=\"width: 24.9758%;\"></colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">空间高度</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">连板数</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">其它特征</td>\n</tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">冰点</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">2b-4b(看环境）</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">10+-</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">没有或极少核按钮</td>\n</tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">试探</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">3b-5b</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">10-15</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n</tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">上升</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> >=5b</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">>15</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">接力效应极好 打板溢价率高</td>\n</tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">高潮</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">>=6b(看环境）</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">20-40</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">主线板块涨停潮</td>\n</tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">分歧</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">↓</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">15-30</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">周期龙头断板 出现负反馈</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>退潮</td>\n<td>↓</td>\n<td>10-20</td>\n<td>核按钮频繁出现</td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n</li>\n<li> </li>\n<li>主线支线分析</li>\n<li> </li>\n<li> </li>\n<li>复盘与交易</li>\n</ul>\n<p>小结：</p>\n<ul>\n<li>选择在容错率高，连板率高的上升阶段打板，成功率最高</li>\n<li>退潮阶段胜率最低，最好的操作是空仓\n<ul>\n<li>大多数亏钱都是不懂得在这个阶段空仓，而导致在上升阶段的盈利吐回云</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>试探，分歧阶段胜率一般，要求较高的选股能力，否则容易吃大面</li>\n<li>要学会管住手！管住！管住！管住！\n<ul>\n<li>退潮期是杀人不眨眼的，很多高手都死在这个阶段</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li> </li>\n</ul>\n<p> </p>\n<p> </p>\n<p>真正的高手，不看技术指标，最看重的是市场情绪的分析 市场的核心，是情绪周期</p>\n<p> </p>\n<ul>\n<li>均线</li>\n<li>量价</li>\n</ul>\n<hr>\n<p> </p>\n<p>第5讲 情绪周共用的</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p><span style=\"font-size: 18px;\"><strong><span style=\"color: rgb(0, 0, 0);\">业绩有大幅波动，要在1月底前预披露完</span></strong></span></p>\n<p>在不同的情绪周期阶段，结果是不一样的</p>\n<p>龙头断板，就代表行情进行分歧阶段</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p>在节前，市场会博弈节后龙头的股份</p>\n<p>节后开门红</p>\n<p>在房地产黄金期，怎么买都是对的</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p>要注意业绩地雷时，会有很多跌停盘，但跟情绪周期无关</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p>在分歧阶段，看核按钮，如果核按钮比较多，就是退潮阶段</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p>极端情况才会出现2板，一般都是4板</p>\n<p> </p>\n<p> </p>\n<p> </p>\n<p> </p>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%; height: 160.157px;\" border=\"1\"><colgroup><col style=\"width: 14.2654%;\"><col style=\"width: 14.2654%;\"><col style=\"width: 14.2654%;\"><col style=\"width: 14.2654%;\"><col style=\"width: 14.2654%;\"><col style=\"width: 14.2654%;\"><col style=\"width: 14.2654%;\"></colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">项目</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">12月27日 </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">。。。。</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">。。。。。</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n</tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">涨跌比</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n</tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">涨停数</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n</tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">跌停数</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n</tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\">连板效应</td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 19.5938px;\"> </td>\n</tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 14.5938px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 14.5938px;\">\n<p>连板金额</p>\n</td>\n<td style=\"height: 14.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 14.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 14.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 14.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 14.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 14.5938px;\"> </td>\n</tr>\n<tr style=\"height: 47.5938px;\">\n<td style=\"height: 47.5938px;\">\n<p>首板金额</p>\n</td>\n<td style=\"height: 47.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 47.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 47.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 47.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 47.5938px;\"> </td>\n<td style=\"height: 47.5938px;\"> </td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>涨停金额</p>\n</td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>高度</p>\n</td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>\n<p>情绪周期</p>\n</td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<p> </p>\n<p> </p>\n<p> </p>\n<hr>\n<p>主线与支线</p>\n<ul>\n<li>主线是市场最核心的做多方向，热钱的集中地</li>\n<li>主线赚钱效应强，盈利空间最大</li>\n<li>主线持续性强，时间跨度通常在1个月以上，至少有两波以上炒作\n<ul>\n<li>不要一直满仓，否则主线来了，手中无钱跟</li>\n<li>寻找空间大，持续性好的赚钱机会</li>\n<li>有多个龙头，容易产生穿越妖股</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p>什么版块能成为主线</p>\n<ul>\n<li>国家级别的政策\n<ul>\n<li>碳中和</li>\n<li>浙江共同富裕示范区</li>\n<li>东数西算（大数据）</li>\n<li>基建</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>颠覆性的行业变化\n<ul>\n<li>锂电池（对传统汽车的改变）</li>\n<li>元宇宙</li>\n<li>数字人民币</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>新颖的题材\n<ul>\n<li>元宇宙 东数西算</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>影响较大的事件\n<ul>\n<li>油气</li>\n<li>中俄贸易</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p>如何判断持续性</p>\n<ul>\n<li>满足上述条件（就是上面的4个特点）</li>\n<li>预期后市有持续的消息面刺激</li>\n</ul>\n<p>支线分析</p>\n<ul>\n<li>除了主线，其余都是支线</li>\n<li>支线持续性不强，通常只一波</li>\n<li>支线通常在主线休整时得到资金青睐</li>\n<li>支线可作为强势行情下主线将就溢出的承载地</li>\n</ul>\n<p>操盘真理</p>\n<ul>\n<li>坚决把握主线</li>\n<li>当你迷茫时，想想主线是什么</li>\n</ul>\n<hr>\n<p>板块炒作周期</p>\n<p> </p>\n<ul>\n<li>启动期\n<ul>\n<li>龙头一致性极高</li>\n<li>跟风效应极强</li>\n<li>打板胜率极高</li>\n<li> 先上前排龙头，其次换手龙头\n<ul>\n<li>2月18日 15个涨停，期中5个一字板 10个换手板</li>\n<li>龙头：美利云，佳力图 贵广网络 首都在线 依米康</li>\n<li>换手龙 黑牡丹 数据港</li>\n<li> </li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>上升前期\n<ul>\n<li>龙头一致性高</li>\n<li>跟风效应极强，部分中位掉队</li>\n<li>打板胜率很高</li>\n<li>优先龙头战法，其次各梯队龙头\n<ul>\n<li>2月18日 15个涨停</li>\n<li>2月21日 42个涨停</li>\n<li>2月22日 16个涨停（首次分歧）</li>\n<li>龙头：美利云，佳力图，贵广网络 首都在线 依米康</li>\n<li>换手龙：黑牡丹 云赛智联</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p>重要知识：</p>\n<ul>\n<li>总龙头：逻辑正尝，实际流动市值30亿以内为佳\n<ul>\n<li>要打空间，所以市值不能太大，股价不能太高</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>换手龙：逻辑正尝，实际流通市值为30-100亿\n<ul>\n<li>需要承载市场上的热点资金</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>首次分岐：最早换手上板通常为换手龙\n<ul>\n<li>是最佳买点，爆发1，2天是买不到的</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p> </p>\n<ul>\n<li>上升后期\n<ul>\n<li>龙头开始出现分岐</li>\n<li>中低位开始出现负反馈\n<ul>\n<li>出现杀跌</li>\n<li>出现核按钮</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>同时出现低位补涨</li>\n<li>打板胜率一般</li>\n<li>适合龙头战法，首板补涨\n<ul>\n<li>2月18日 15个涨停</li>\n<li>2月21日 42个涨停</li>\n<li>2月22日 16个涨停（首次分岐）</li>\n<li>2月23日 16个涨停</li>\n<li>2月24日 6个涨停</li>\n<li>2月25日 7个涨停</li>\n<li>2月28日 2个涨停</li>\n<li>3月01日 6个涨停</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n<li>龙头：美利云 7B\n<ul>\n<li>高潮期（一般在主升后期里）\n<ul>\n<li>情况一：爗发即高潮</li>\n<li>情况二：高位二次高潮</li>\n<li>非常危险，空仓\n<ul>\n<li>通常龙头走职超预期行情，再次引发资金对板块的热情，从而回流炒作低位补涨</li>\n<li> </li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<p> </p>\n<ul>\n<li> </li>\n<li>退潮期\n<ul>\n<li>龙头出现负反馈</li>\n<li>中低位出现核按钮</li>\n<li>通常连杀3天即释放风</li>\n<li> </li>\n<li> </li>\n<li>险</li>\n<li>非常危险，空仓</li>\n</ul>\n</li>\n</ul>\n<table style=\"border-collapse: collapse; width: 100%;\" border=\"1\"><colgroup><col style=\"width: 25.0199%;\"><col style=\"width: 25.0199%;\"><col style=\"width: 25.0199%;\"><col style=\"width: 24.9801%;\"></colgroup>\n<tbody>\n<tr>\n<td>板块周棋</td>\n<td>盘面特征</td>\n<td>安全系数</td>\n<td>操作策略</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>启动</td>\n<td>\n<p>龙头一致</p>\n<p>跟风效应强</p>\n</td>\n<td>安全</td>\n<td>\n<p>龙头</p>\n<p>最强中位</p>\n<p>首板跟风</p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>主升前期</td>\n<td>\n<p>龙头一致</p>\n<p>跟风效应强</p>\n<p>部分中位掉队</p>\n</td>\n<td>安一</td>\n<td>\n<p>龙头</p>\n<p>最强中位</p>\n<p>首板补涨</p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>主升后期</td>\n<td>\n<p>龙头分岐</p>\n<p>中低位负反馈</p>\n</td>\n<td>危险</td>\n<td>\n<p>龙头</p>\n<p>首板补涨</p>\n</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td>退潮期</td>\n<td>\n<p>龙头负反馈</p>\n<p>中低位负反馈</p>\n</td>\n<td>非常危险</td>\n<td>空仓</td>\n</tr>\n<tr>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n<td> </td>\n</tr>\n</tbody>\n</table>\n<hr>\n<p> </p>","status":1,"pv":164,"link":"","createdAt":"2024-01-15 10:06:14","updatedAt":"2025-05-20 04:50:03","field":{},"tags":[]}
article.tags------>[]
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